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Solo Mining Odds Calculator — Real Chances for Bitaxe, Antminer & Rented Hashrate

Live odds for solo mining a block: a Bitaxe Gamma tested on all five SHA-256 chains (14,111 years on BTC down to 19.7 days on BC2), then compared with an Antminer S21+ and a NerdQAxe++. Poisson model, live difficulty from SoloFury's own nodes.

Solo Mining Odds Calculator — Real Chances for Bitaxe, Antminer & Rented Hashrate

Watch on YouTube · 3:28

Chapters

  • 0:00 — Intro
  • 0:08 — Live data from our own nodes
  • 0:25 — Hardware presets: Bitaxe to industrial ASICs
  • 0:55 — Bitcoin odds for a Bitaxe
  • 1:20 — Bitcoin Cash odds
  • 1:45 — Bitcoin II odds
  • 2:05 — Bitcoin Cash II odds
  • 2:25 — eCash odds
  • 2:45 — Compare miners: Bitaxe vs Antminer S21+ vs NerdQAxe++
  • 3:05 — How the Poisson model works
  • 3:20 — Summary

Transcript

Live data from our own nodes

Welcome to the Solo Mining Calculator. Before we dive into the numbers, it’s important to note that every calculation you see here is powered by live network data, fetched directly from SoloFury’s own full nodes. This ensures the odds you’re looking at are as accurate as possible.

Hardware presets: from Bitaxe to industrial ASICs

I’ll open the preset menu to show the range of hardware supported. We have a Home mining group featuring devices like the GekkoScience Compac, Bitaxe models, and the Avalon Nano. Moving down, there’s the ASIC group for industrial power like the Antminer S21+ and Whatsminer series. Finally, the Rental group offers rented hashrate packages up to hundreds of petahash.

Bitcoin odds for a Bitaxe

With Bitcoin selected, I’ll click calculate. The numbers are blunt here: for this small device, the expected time to find a block is 14,111 years. It’s probabilities, not promises, and on the main Bitcoin chain, a home miner needs extraordinary luck to see a solo win.

Bitcoin Cash

Switching to Bitcoin Cash, our expected time drops significantly to 59.7 years. It’s far more accessible than Bitcoin, but solo mining here is still very much a long game for a single Bitaxe.

Bitcoin II

Now let’s look at Bitcoin II. This is one of the most realistic targets for small hardware, showing an expected time of just 19.7 days. This is where solo mining starts to feel achievable for a home setup.

Bitcoin Cash II

Look at the difference on Bitcoin Cash II: 22.5 days. Think about the journey so far. Same device, same hashes, but the expected time has collapsed from geological scales on Bitcoin to a timeframe a home miner can actually reason about.

eCash

Finally, we have eCash, which sits as the middle ground of these five chains at 203.6 days. It’s a balanced option for those looking beyond the most difficult or easiest targets.

Compare miners: Bitaxe vs Antminer S21+ vs NerdQAxe++

Let’s use the Compare miners feature. I’ll stay on Bitcoin Cash II and add an Antminer S21+ at 235 terahashes, plus a NerdQAxe++ for comparison. You can see the results side by side: the desk gadget at 15.6 days, the industrial ASIC at 2.8 hours, and the NerdQAxe at 5.6 days. The calculator shows how scale changes the timeline, but not the individual probability of each hash.

The Poisson model: a game of time, not scale

How are these odds calculated? It’s based on a Poisson model. Every hash has the same probability as one from a large farm. You just submit fewer of them. Solo mining isn’t a game of scale; it’s a game of time.

Summary

In summary: Bitcoin is the hardest target, while BC2 and BCH2 are more realistic. Remember, these are statistical probabilities and the pool fee is one percent. Run your own numbers at solofury.com/calculator.

FAQ

How are solo mining odds calculated?

With a Poisson model on live network difficulty: your hashrate divided by the network hashrate gives the expected blocks per period. Every hash has the same probability as a hash from an industrial farm — a small miner simply submits fewer of them.

What are the odds of a Bitaxe solo mining a Bitcoin block?

At the time of recording, a 1.2 TH/s Bitaxe Gamma showed an expected time of 14,111 years on Bitcoin. It is an average, not a countdown: a miner can win tomorrow or never, and both outcomes are consistent with the odds.

Which SHA-256 chain is most realistic for small hardware?

At recording time, the same Bitaxe Gamma showed 19.7 days expected on Bitcoin II and 22.5 days on Bitcoin Cash II, versus years on Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash. eCash sat in the middle at 203.6 days. Lower difficulty means dramatically shorter expected times with identical hardware.

Does the calculator use live data?

Yes. Difficulty and network hashrate are fetched live from SoloFury's own full nodes for each of the five chains, so the odds reflect the network as it is right now, not a cached snapshot.

Is a bigger miner more likely to win per hash?

No. Each hash has an identical, independent probability. Scale changes how many attempts you submit per second — it shortens the expected time, but it does not improve any single hash. Solo mining is a game of time, not scale.

Try it yourself