How does the solo mining calculator work?

It uses a Poisson probability model with live network hashrate from SoloFury full nodes. Enter your hashrate and select your coin to get expected block time, median time, and daily/weekly/monthly win probability.

What are my chances of finding a solo mining block?

It depends on your hashrate and which coin you mine. A 1 TH/s miner on BCH (~4 EH/s network) has roughly 1-in-4,000,000 odds per block. On BC2 or BCH2 the same miner wins far more often. Use the calculator to see exact numbers for your hardware.

Can I use this for Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and other SHA-256 coins?

Yes. SoloFury supports BTC, BCH, BC2 (Bitcoin II), BCH2 (Bitcoin Cash II), and XEC (eCash). Each coin uses live difficulty data from its own full node. Switch coins in the selector to compare odds side by side.

What is the difference between expected time and median time?

Expected time is the mathematical average. Median time is when 50% of miners would have found a block. Due to the exponential distribution of mining luck, the median is always shorter than the mean.

How accurate is this solo mining probability calculator?

Very accurate for statistical averages. The Poisson model is exact for random independent events like mining. Actual block times vary widely — you might win tomorrow or never. The calculator gives you the probability distribution, not a guarantee.

Is solo mining profitable for small miners?

Profit depends on hardware cost, electricity, and luck. For small miners, coins with lower network hashrate (BC2, BCH2, BCH, XEC) offer realistic odds. Use the block probability calculator alongside the profitability calculator to weigh the economics.

Solo Calculator

Calculate your odds of finding a block on SoloFury · live network data

PRESET

YOUR HASHRATE

UNIT

Account for difficulty growth (~2×/yr)

Click CALCULATE to see your block-finding odds…

📋 Embed this calculator on your site →

📐 CALCULATION METHODS

Probability of finding ≥1 blockP = 1 − e^(−λ)
Expected blocks in period (λ)λ = (your hashrate ÷ network hashrate) × (period ÷ block time)
Expected (average) time to a blockT = (network hashrate ÷ your hashrate) × block time
Median time (50% chance)median = T × ln(2) ≈ T × 0.693
Daily expected reward (long-run avg)= your share × blocks/day × block reward
Difficulty growth (optional)long-run periods discounted assuming difficulty rises ~2×/yr
Rental hashratesame Poisson model · power draw not used — you pay a marketplace rental fee (NiceHash / MiningRigRentals), not electricity

Data source: live network hashrate from SoloFury full nodes · Poisson model · refreshed on each calculation ·

HOW TO SOLO MINE

💰

01 — GET ASIC MINER

Or rent SHA-256 hashrate online. Bigger hashrate = better odds.

⛏

02 — RENT SHA-256

Choose hashrate amount and rental duration on MiningRigRentals or NiceHash.

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03 — POINT TO SOLOFURY

Set pool: btc.solofury.com:6060 (BTC) or any coin subdomain.

🏆

04 — WIN THE BLOCK

Full reward goes directly to your wallet via coinbase transaction.

🚀 RENT HASHRATE NOW

⏱ HOW SOLO MINING ODDS ARE CALCULATED

This calculator uses a Poisson probability model — the same math that governs all SHA-256 mining. Your odds of finding a block in any given time window equal 1 − e^(−t/T), where T is your expected block time (network hashrate ÷ your hashrate × block interval). The network hashrate is fetched live from SoloFury full nodes, so every calculation reflects real-time difficulty. The key insight: your probability per hash is identical to that of an industrial farm. You submit fewer hashes, so you find blocks less often — but each hash has the same chance. Solo mining is not a game of scale; it’s a game of time.

🪙 SHA-256 SOLO MINING BY COIN

Not all SHA-256 coins are equally winnable. Bitcoin (BTC) has ~750 EH/s of competition — a solo Bitaxe expects a block once every several thousand years. Bitcoin Cash (BCH) runs at ~3–5 EH/s — 150–200× more accessible for the same hardware. BC2 and BCH2 are the most realistic targets for small miners, with expected block times measured in weeks or months on a single S21+. XEC (eCash) offers a middle ground. Use the coin selector above to compare live odds across all five chains — the numbers update with each calculation.