SHA-256 Odds Report — July 2026
The ladder moves. Difficulty climbs and dips, hashrate migrates, and the expected-time tables that were true last month drift. This page is the fix: a monthly snapshot of solo odds across all five SHA-256 chains, computed from live node data, for every hardware class — updated on a fixed cadence so the numbers you plan with are never stale. This is the July 2026 edition; the date stamp above is your freshness guarantee.
This is the monthly odds report for the SHA-256 solo mining ladder: live difficulty and network hashrate for Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, eCash, BC2 and BCH2 — read directly from full nodes — converted into expected solo block times for every hardware class. July 2026 is the inaugural edition and this month’s baseline; from August onward, each edition adds month-over-month movement notes so the ladder’s drift is visible at a glance. One permanent URL, refreshed monthly.
Key takeaways — July 2026
- The network state: Bitcoin sits at ~133.9T difficulty on ~1.02 ZH/s — the zetahash era’s plateau — with BCH at 1/265th of that, XEC at 1/20,000th, and the ladder’s bottom four to five orders of magnitude below the top.
- The headline ratios: the same machine faces expected times spanning from millennia (BTC) to days (BCH2) — the entire thesis of chain choice, in one table.
- Baseline month: as the first edition, July 2026 sets the reference; movement notes begin next month.
- Freshness contract: the updatedDate above is the guarantee. Stale odds tables are worse than none; this page exists so you never plan on one.
The ladder — July 2026 snapshot
| Chain | Difficulty | Network hashrate | vs BTC difficulty |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | ~133.9 T | ~1.02 ZH/s | 1× |
| BCH | ~504.4 G | ~4.1 EH/s | 1 / 265 |
| BC2 | ~17.6 G | ~8.1 PH/s | 1 / 7,614 |
| XEC | ~6.63 G | ~53 PH/s | 1 / 20,181 |
| BCH2 | ~1.49 G | ~5.7 PH/s | 1 / 89,906 |
Expected solo block times by hardware class
| Hardware | BTC | BCH | BC2 | XEC | BCH2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitaxe class (1 TH/s) | ~18,220 yrs | ~69 yrs | ~2.4 yrs | ~330 days | ~74 days |
| NerdQAxe class (6 TH/s) | ~3,037 yrs | ~11 yrs | ~146 days | ~55 days | ~12 days |
| S21 class (235 TH/s) | ~78 yrs | ~107 days | ~4 days | ~34 hrs | ~8 hrs |
| Petahash class (1,160 TH/s) | ~16 yrs | ~22 days | ~18 hrs | ~7 hrs | ~1.5 hrs |
Your own hashrate scales linearly between rows — double the terahash, halve every expected time — and gets exact, per-chain treatment in the live calculator, which reads the same node data continuously rather than monthly. Remember what these numbers are: Poisson averages with enormous variance, comparison tools rather than schedules — the variance guide is the mandatory companion reading.
Movement notes — July 2026
Baseline edition. This inaugural report establishes the reference values; month-over-month deltas begin with the August edition. Standing context worth logging as the baseline’s frame: Bitcoin crossed one zetahash per second in late 2025 and its next halving sits roughly 21 months out (~April 2028, block 1,050,000) — the two slow-moving facts every future edition’s movements will play against. On the small end of the ladder, remember that continuous-adjustment chains (BCH’s ASERT, XEC’s layered design) price hashrate migration in real time, while window-based designs can lag — the mechanics that decide whether a difficulty move is timeable are in the ASERT guide and the retarget-window guide.
How to use this report
Three intended uses. Planning: when choosing where a machine points for the season, use this month’s table, not a remembered one — the ladder drifts. Monitoring: the month-over-month notes (from August) flag which rungs moved enough to matter, so a quick monthly read replaces constant checking. Honesty-keeping: every figure traces to node data anyone can reproduce, every expected time carries its variance caveat, and the small-chain rungs always carry the risk checklist implicitly — better odds are a trade, and this report prices only one side of it. The other side is one link away, on purpose.
The odds are fresh. The rest is your move.
Every number above comes from nodes SoloFury runs on all five chains — the same data that powers the live calculator and the pool itself. Non-custodial coinbase payouts, 1% fee, TLS endpoints in every region. Pick your rung with this month’s truth, and check back on the first week of every month.
Your exact odds, live →Point at your rung →Frequently Asked Questions
Where do this report's numbers come from?
Directly from full nodes on each of the five chains — difficulty and network hashrate read from the chain itself, not from third-party aggregators. Expected times are then computed with the standard formula: difficulty × 2^32 ÷ hashrate. Every figure in the tables is reproducible by anyone running a node, which is exactly how mining data should be.
How do I read an 'expected time to block'?
As a Poisson average, never a schedule: an expected time of 30 days means a ~63% chance of at least one block within 30 days, with real possibility of winning tomorrow or waiting triple. The number's job is comparison — between chains, between hardware, between months — not prediction of your particular luck. The full variance math has its own guide.
Why do the numbers change month to month?
Difficulty tracks hashrate, and hashrate moves constantly: new machine deployments push Bitcoin's difficulty up on its two-week retargets, while smaller chains adjust continuously (ASERT-style) as miners migrate for profitability. A chain whose difficulty fell since last month temporarily offers better odds per hash — which usually attracts hashrate that normalizes it. The monthly cadence catches those swings.
Which chain should I point my hardware at this month?
The tables give you the odds; the choice needs your goals. The standing framework: the grand-prize dream lives on BTC, the liquidity-weighted sweet spot on BCH, and achievable-win psychology on the smaller chains — with the small-chain risk checklist applying in full. Run your exact hashrate through the calculator, decide which variance texture you want, and re-check here next month.
Does this report tell me when a chain is 'hot'?
It tells you when a chain's difficulty moved meaningfully — the month-over-month notes flag drops and spikes. Whether that's actionable depends on the chain's difficulty design: on per-block algorithms there's no window to time, while retarget-window chains can briefly offer genuine opportunity after drops. The difficulty-science guides explain which is which; this report supplies the fresh numbers.
Why are only these five chains covered?
Because these are the five whose nodes we run and whose data we can verify at the source — the report's whole premise is first-party numbers. Other SHA-256 chains exist and sometimes offer interesting odds; evaluating them means applying the same math (difficulty × 2^32 ÷ hashrate) plus the full small-chain risk checklist, with data you've verified yourself.
How is the hardware list chosen?
Four reference classes spanning the real market: a 1 TH/s Bitaxe-class desk device, a 6 TH/s NerdQAxe-class home miner, a 235 TH/s S21-class ASIC, and the 1,160 TH/s petahash-class flagship. Your own hashrate scales linearly between rows — double the hashrate, halve the expected time — or gets exact treatment in the calculator.
When is the next edition?
The first week of each month, refreshing every table from live node data with movement notes against the prior edition. The updatedDate in the header is the authoritative freshness stamp — if it's more than ~5 weeks old, a new edition is imminent. Bookmark this URL; it's permanent, and only the numbers change.