SHA-256 Odds Report — September 2026
The ladder moves. Difficulty climbs and dips, hashrate migrates, and the expected-time tables that were true last month drift. This page is the fix: a monthly snapshot of solo odds across all six SHA-256 chains SoloFury runs nodes for, for every hardware class. This is the September 2026 edition, with movement notes against the July baseline; the date stamp above is your freshness guarantee.
This is the monthly odds report for the SHA-256 solo mining ladder: difficulty and network hashrate for Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, BC2, BCH2, eCash and DigiByte (SHA-256) — read from full nodes — converted into expected solo block times for every hardware class. This is the September 2026 edition, read on 27 September 2026. No August edition was published, so the movement notes compare against the July 2026 baseline. DigiByte joins the ladder for the first time.
Key takeaways — September 2026
- The network state: Bitcoin sits at ~132.76 T difficulty, about ~0.95 ZH/s, essentially flat since July. BCH carries about 1/265th of Bitcoin’s hashrate; the smallest rung, BCH2, about 1/100,000th.
- The headline spread: the same 1 TH/s device faces expected times from ~18,000 years on BTC to about a month on DigiByte — the entire thesis of chain choice, in one table.
- What moved: BC2’s network hashrate more than doubled since July, and BC2 now adjusts difficulty per block (ShockWave). eCash’s hashrate fell about 14%. BCH’s difficulty rose about 8%.
- New rung: DigiByte’s SHA-256 algorithm, with blocks about every 75 seconds for that algorithm.
- New method: expected times now come from network hashrate, not from a single difficulty reading. See the FAQ for why.
The ladder — September 2026 snapshot
| Chain | Difficulty (snapshot) | Network hashrate | vs BTC hashrate | Block target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | ~132.76 T | ~0.95 ZH/s | 1× | 10 min |
| BCH | ~544.6 G | ~3.6 EH/s | 1 / 265 | 10 min |
| XEC | ~7.06 G | ~45.4 PH/s | 1 / 20,928 | 10 min |
| DGB (SHA-256) | ~614 M | ~37.5 PH/s | 1 / 25,312 | ~75 s per algorithm |
| BC2 | ~2.69 G | ~18.7 PH/s | 1 / 50,938 | 10 min |
| BCH2 | ~1.27 G | ~9.5 PH/s | 1 / 100,201 | 10 min |
Read on SoloFury’s nodes on 27 September 2026, 11:09–11:15 UTC; Bitcoin’s difficulty from the node on 26 September, with its hashrate derived from difficulty. On eCash and BC2 the difficulty changes block by block, so treat that column as a single reading: on BC2 it was ~11.2 G the day before. The network hashrate column is the stable one.
Expected solo block times by hardware class
| Hardware | BTC | BCH | XEC | DGB | BC2 | BCH2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitaxe class (1 TH/s) | ~18,081 yrs | ~68 yrs | ~315 days | ~33 days | ~130 days | ~66 days |
| NerdQAxe class (6 TH/s) | ~3,013 yrs | ~11 yrs | ~53 days | ~5 days | ~22 days | ~11 days |
| S21 class (235 TH/s) | ~77 yrs | ~106 days | ~32 hrs | ~3 hrs | ~13 hrs | ~7 hrs |
| Petahash class (1,160 TH/s) | ~16 yrs | ~21 days | ~7 hrs | ~40 min | ~3 hrs | ~1.4 hrs |
Calculated as block target × network hashrate ÷ device hashrate. Your own hashrate scales linearly between rows — double the terahash, halve every expected time — and gets exact, per-chain treatment in the live calculator, which reads the same node data continuously. Remember what these numbers are: Poisson averages with enormous variance, comparison tools rather than schedules — the variance guide is the companion reading.
Movement notes — July to September 2026
A method change first. The July edition computed expected times from a single difficulty reading. This edition uses network hashrate, for the reason explained in the FAQ. Some differences between the two tables reflect that change as well as real movement, so the notes below compare hashrate and difficulty directly.
- BTC: difficulty ~−1% (133.9 T → 132.76 T). Flat; the odds are unchanged. The next halving is at block 1,050,000, about 18–19 months away (~April 2028).
- BCH: difficulty ~+8% (504.4 G → 544.6 G), while the network hashrate estimate reads ~3.6 EH/s against ~4.1 EH/s in July. Mixed signals, small net effect: a 1 TH/s device still averages around 70 years.
- XEC: network hashrate ~−14% (~53 → ~45 PH/s). Slightly better odds per hash than in July.
- BC2: network hashrate ~+130% (~8.1 → ~18.7 PH/s). The bigger change is structural: BitcoinII Core v31.1.0 activated ShockWave, a per-block difficulty adjustment, at height 57,750 (SoloFury’s node runs
/BitcoinII:31.1.0/, at height 60,168 on 27 September). Taken together, July’s two figures (~17.6 G difficulty on ~8.1 PH/s) imply blocks roughly every 2.6 hours at that moment, a lag typical of the old window-based adjustment; with ShockWave, difficulty follows hashrate block by block. - BCH2: network hashrate ~+66% (~5.7 → ~9.5 PH/s), difficulty ~−15%. More competition on the smallest rung.
- DGB: first appearance. SHA-256 is one of DigiByte’s five mining algorithms; each targets roughly one block every 75 seconds, which is why a 1 TH/s device averages about a month.
For how per-block adjustment prices hashrate migration in real time, see the ASERT guide.
How to use this report
Three intended uses. Planning: when choosing where a machine points for the season, use this month’s table, not a remembered one — the ladder drifts. Monitoring: the movement notes flag which rungs moved enough to matter, so a monthly read replaces constant checking. Honesty-keeping: every figure traces to node data anyone can reproduce, every expected time carries its variance caveat, and the small-chain rungs always carry the risk checklist — better odds are a trade, and this report prices only one side of it.
The odds are fresh. The rest is your move.
Every number above comes from nodes SoloFury runs on all six chains — the same data that powers the live calculator and the pool itself. Non-custodial coinbase payouts, 1% fee, TLS endpoints in every region. Pick your rung with this month’s numbers, and check back next month.
Your exact odds, live →Point at your rung →Frequently Asked Questions
Where do this report's numbers come from?
From full nodes SoloFury runs for each of the six chains: difficulty and network hashrate read from the chain itself, not from third-party aggregators. The September 2026 snapshot was read on 27 September 2026 between 11:09 and 11:15 UTC; Bitcoin's difficulty comes from the node on 26 September and its network hashrate is derived from that difficulty. Every figure is reproducible by anyone running a node.
How are the expected times calculated?
As block target time × network hashrate ÷ your hashrate. On average this equals the classic difficulty × 2^32 ÷ hashrate, but it doesn't depend on the last block's difficulty. That matters because eCash and BC2 change difficulty block by block: a single difficulty reading on those chains can be several times higher or lower than the next one, while the network hashrate is an average over many blocks and stays stable.
How do I read an 'expected time to block'?
As a Poisson average, never a schedule: an expected time of 30 days means about a 63% chance of at least one block within 30 days, with a real possibility of winning tomorrow or waiting three times as long. The number's job is comparison — between chains, between hardware, between months — not prediction of your particular luck. The full variance math has its own guide.
Why do the numbers change month to month?
Difficulty tracks hashrate, and hashrate moves constantly. Bitcoin retargets every 2,016 blocks, about two weeks. The other five chains adjust per block: ASERT on BCH and BCH2, per-block targeting on eCash, ShockWave on BC2 since height 57,750 (BitcoinII Core v31.1.0), and per-block multi-algorithm adjustment on DigiByte. A chain that loses hashrate offers better odds per hash until miners move back.
Which chain should I point my hardware at this month?
The tables give you the odds; the choice needs your goals. The grand-prize dream lives on BTC, the liquidity-weighted middle ground on BCH, and frequent, smaller wins on the smaller chains — with the small-chain risk checklist applying in full. Run your exact hashrate through the calculator and decide which variance you want to carry.
Does this report tell me when a chain is 'hot'?
It tells you when a chain's hashrate or difficulty moved meaningfully — the movement notes flag drops and spikes. Timing them is harder than it used to be: every chain in this ladder except Bitcoin now adjusts difficulty per block, so there is rarely a window to exploit. Treat a drop as information, not as a signal.
Why are only these six chains covered?
Because these are the six whose nodes we run and whose data we can read at the source — the report's whole premise is first-party numbers. Other SHA-256 chains exist; evaluating them means applying the same math plus the full small-chain risk checklist, with data you've verified yourself.
How is the hardware list chosen?
Four reference classes: a 1 TH/s Bitaxe-class desk device, a 6 TH/s NerdQAxe-class home miner, a 235 TH/s S21-class ASIC, and a 1,160 TH/s petahash-class machine. Your own hashrate scales linearly — double the hashrate, halve the expected time — or gets exact treatment in the calculator.
When is the next edition?
The report is refreshed monthly from live node data, with movement notes against the previous edition. The updatedDate in the header is the authoritative freshness stamp. The URL is permanent; only the numbers change.