Solo Calculator
Calculate your odds of finding a block on SoloFury · live network data
📐 CALCULATION METHODS
- Probability of finding ≥1 block
P = 1 − e^(−λ) - Expected blocks in period (λ)
λ = (your hashrate ÷ network hashrate) × (period ÷ block time) - Expected (average) time to a block
T = (network hashrate ÷ your hashrate) × block time - Median time (50% chance)
median = T × ln(2) ≈ T × 0.693 - Daily expected reward (long-run avg)
= your share × blocks/day × block reward - Difficulty growth (optional)
long-run periods discounted assuming difficulty rises ~2×/yr - Rental hashrate
same Poisson model · power draw not used — you pay a marketplace rental fee (NiceHash / MiningRigRentals), not electricity
Data source: live network hashrate from SoloFury full nodes · Poisson model · refreshed on each calculation ·
⏱ HOW SOLO MINING ODDS ARE CALCULATED
This calculator uses a Poisson probability model — the same math that governs all SHA-256 mining. Your odds of finding a block in any given time window equal 1 − e^(−t/T), where T is your expected block time (network hashrate ÷ your hashrate × block interval). The network hashrate is fetched live from SoloFury full nodes, so every calculation reflects real-time difficulty. The key insight: your probability per hash is identical to that of an industrial farm. You submit fewer hashes, so you find blocks less often — but each hash has the same chance. Solo mining is not a game of scale; it’s a game of time.
🪙 SHA-256 SOLO MINING BY COIN
Not all SHA-256 coins are equally winnable. Bitcoin (BTC) has ~750 EH/s of competition — a solo Bitaxe expects a block once every several thousand years. Bitcoin Cash (BCH) runs at ~3–5 EH/s — 150–200× more accessible for the same hardware. BC2 and BCH2 are the most realistic targets for small miners, with expected block times measured in weeks or months on a single S21+. XEC (eCash) offers a middle ground. Use the coin selector above to compare live odds across all five chains — the numbers update with each calculation.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
How does the solo mining calculator work?
It uses a Poisson probability model with live network hashrate from SoloFury full nodes. Enter your hashrate and select your coin to get expected block time, median time, and daily/weekly/monthly win probability.
What are my chances of finding a solo mining block?
It depends on your hashrate and which coin you mine. A 1 TH/s miner on BCH has roughly 1-in-4,000,000 odds per block. On BC2 or BCH2 the same miner wins far more often. Use the calculator to see exact numbers for your hardware.
Which coin gives the best solo mining odds?
At current difficulty, BCH2 offers the shortest expected time to block for small hardware — a 1 TH/s miner averages roughly one block a month, versus millennia on BTC. BC2 and XEC also give small miners realistic odds. See the full odds table by hardware in our Solo Mining Odds guide.
Can I use this for Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and other SHA-256 coins?
Yes. SoloFury supports BTC, BCH, BC2 (Bitcoin II), BCH2 (Bitcoin Cash II), and XEC (eCash). Each coin uses live difficulty data from its own full node. Switch coins in the selector to compare odds side by side.
What is the difference between expected time and median time?
Expected time is the mathematical average. Median time is when 50% of miners would have found a block. Due to the exponential distribution of mining luck, the median is always shorter than the mean.
How accurate is this solo mining probability calculator?
Very accurate for statistical averages. The Poisson model is exact for random independent events like mining. Actual block times vary widely — you might win tomorrow or never. The calculator gives you the probability distribution, not a guarantee.
Is solo mining profitable for small miners?
Profit depends on hardware cost, electricity, and luck. For small miners, coins with lower network hashrate (BC2, BCH2, BCH, XEC) offer realistic odds. Weigh block odds against the profitability calculator.