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Can a Bitaxe Really Find a Block? We Did the Math

April 2026 10 min read By SoloFury

The Bitaxe is everywhere. Thousands of home miners have one sitting on their desk, quietly hashing away at 0.5–1.2 TH/s. But the question everyone asks is: can it actually find a block?

The short answer: yes, but probably not on Bitcoin. The long answer involves math, probability, and choosing the right coin. Let's break it down.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Bitaxe vs Bitcoin — The Brutal Math

Let's start with the hard truth. Bitcoin's network hashrate in April 2026 is approximately 900 EH/s (900,000,000 TH/s). A Bitaxe Gamma produces about 1.2 TH/s.

Your share of the network = 1.2 / 900,000,000 = 0.00000013%

With a block found roughly every 10 minutes (144 blocks/day), your daily probability of finding a BTC block is:

Daily probability = 144 × (1.2 / 900,000,000,000,000) ≈ 0.000000019%

That translates to one block every ~14 million years on average.

Reality check: Mining BTC with a Bitaxe is technically possible — every hash has the same chance — but the expected time is measured in millions of years. It's a fun experiment, not a viable strategy.

2. Where Bitaxe Actually Has a Chance

The game changes completely when you mine lower-difficulty SHA-256 coins. The same Bitaxe that needs 14 million years for a BTC block might find a block on other coins in a much more reasonable timeframe.

Why? Because these coins have much lower network hashrate. While Bitcoin has 900 EH/s, some SHA-256 coins have less than 100 PH/s — that's 10,000x less competition.

3. The Odds Table — Every Coin Compared

Here's a comparison of a Bitaxe Gamma (1.2 TH/s) mining different coins on SoloFury:

CoinNetwork HashrateBlock RewardUSD ValueExpected TimeDaily Odds
BTC~900 EH/s3.125 BTC~$300,000~14 million years~0%
BCH~6 EH/s3.125 BCH~$1,400~95,000 years~0.000003%
XEC~54 PH/s3.125M XEC~$120~856 years~0.00032%
BC2~32 PH/s50 BC2~$40~508 years~0.00054%
BCH2~16 PH/s50 BCH2~$1~254 years~0.001%
Key insight: On BC2, a Bitaxe has roughly a 1 in 185,000 chance per day. That's still low, but it's 10,000x better than BTC. Run 10 Bitaxes for a year and your cumulative probability becomes meaningful.

4. Has a Small Miner Ever Found a Block?

Yes! Solo miners with relatively small hashrate have found blocks on various coins. The crypto community regularly reports these events:

The difference is frequency. A farm produces billions of hashes per second, giving it billions more "lottery tickets" per second. But each individual ticket has the exact same odds.

5. The Smart Bitaxe Strategy

Mine the lowest difficulty coin available

Don't mine BTC with your Bitaxe. Instead, mine BC2 or BCH2 on SoloFury. These coins have the lowest network difficulty, giving you the best odds per hash.

Use the Coin Switcher

Check the SoloFury Coin Switcher regularly. Network difficulty changes every 2016 blocks, and sometimes one coin becomes temporarily easier to mine. The Coin Switcher shows you which coin gives you the best odds right now.

Run multiple Bitaxes

Each additional Bitaxe multiplies your odds linearly. 5 Bitaxes = 5x the probability. At ~$200 each and ~15W power consumption, running a small fleet of Bitaxes is affordable and nearly silent.

Think long-term

Solo mining with a Bitaxe is a long game. Set it up, let it run 24/7, and check it occasionally. If you find a block on BC2, you get 50 BC2 (~$40). Not life-changing, but consider: the electricity cost of running a Bitaxe for a year is about $13 (15W × 8760h × $0.10/kWh). The expected value may actually be positive on the right coin.

6. How to Set Up Your Bitaxe for the Best Odds

  1. Go to SoloFury Solo Start
  2. Select BC2 (lowest difficulty)
  3. Select your nearest region
  4. Enter your BC2 wallet address
  5. Select "Bitaxe" from the miner list
  6. Apply the generated configuration to AxeOS
  7. Let it run and check the dashboard occasionally

The Bottom Line

Can a Bitaxe find a block? Absolutely. Will it find a BTC block? Almost certainly not in your lifetime. But on lower-difficulty coins like BC2, BCH2, and XEC, the odds become realistic — especially if you run multiple units over months or years. And when that block hits, you keep the entire reward minus a 1% fee.

Every hash is a lottery ticket. The question is: which lottery are you playing?

Set up your Bitaxe for the best odds

Configure Now →

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